International Visitor Spending in the U.S. Projected to Fall $11 Billion in 2026

U.S. Travel Association estimates cited in CoStar reporting put inflation-adjusted international visitor spending down 6.3% for 2026 — an ~$11 billion hit to the travel economy that lands hardest on gateway cities and luxury hotels.

Published: November 13, 2026 | Data & Trends

The News

International visitor spending in the United States is projected to decline by roughly $11 billion in real terms in 2026 — a 6.3% inflation-adjusted drop — according to U.S. Travel Association estimates referenced in CoStar’s hotel-market reporting.

This is not reversed-in-photography noise a quarter’s worth of weak air-passenger data. It’s an annual, economy-level number — the aggregated hotel nights, restaurant meals, entertainment admissions, local transport and retail spending produced by overseas travelers across the country — and it points to a full-year net loss of inbound travel value.

Why it’s happening, according to the reporting:

• Currency. A strong dollar makes U.S. trips materially more expensive for European and Asian travelers in local-currency terms, pushing some long-haul decisions toward better-value destinations.
• Entry friction. Visa-processing backlog and intensified entry screening increase the planning cost and uncertainty for inbound trips, especially for emerging-market travelers with the longest stays and biggest spend.
• Perception and sentiment. International favorability dynamics function as an additional offset on discretionary long-haul travel to the U.S.
• Competition. Mexico, Canada, the Caribbean and long-haul alternatives in Europe and Asia compete for the same high-value traveler.

The distribution also matters as much as the total. The losses concentrate in long-stay, high-spend travelers whose spending patterns historically oversized their room-night counts — luxury leisure, international group business, international corporate and convention attendance. Because these guests spend disproportionately on F&B, spa, entertainment and shopping, the $11 billion figure translates into a *multiple* of that amount in broader economy terms and a visible drag on gateway-city hotel GOP lines rather than a uniform national soft patch.

The offsetting demand structure — domestic high-income leisure, group surge, and extended-stay infrastructure travel — is why the aggregate industry RevPAR picture looks strong despite the inbound decline. But averages hide exposure. If your demand base skews international, 2026 underwriting needs an explicit inbound haircut.

What it means for hotel and travel businesses

For gateway-city hotels and luxury resorts: Price less, product more. Rather than pursuing rate to fill an international demand gap, invest in packages, event programming and domestic-luxury experiences that substitute for lost high-spend visitors. Watch your F&B and auxiliary-spend metrics: they will show the inbound loss before occupancy does.

For destination-marketing organizations: The $11 billion projection will structure federal and state tourism-policy conversations. Expect increased advocacy for visa-processing acceleration, entry-streamlining measures and marketing-budget expansion aimed at international recuperation. DMOs that mobilize brand partnerships, sports and cultural-event bids will benefit competitively.

For travel sellers: International-inbound itineraries need re-engineering: shorter, value-forward, well-bundled packages rather than long sprawling U.S. trips. Prepaid, currency-insulated pricing is essential to win rate-sensitive overseas travelers this cycle.

For airline and ground-transportation partners: With inbound demand softer, the air-capacity and ground-transportation mix serving international routes needs rebalancing. Expect fare discounting on some transatlantic routes to defend load factors — monitor it carefully if you sell trans-border itineraries.

For investors and asset owners: Inbound-dependence is now a measurable risk factor in hotel underwriting. Ask how much of any acquisition pro forma rests on international arrivals, and re-price for the documented 2026 decline before adding a property to a portfolio in a gateway luxury market.

Key numbers

• Projected 2026 decline in international visitor spending: ~$11 billion real / inflation-adjusted
• Percent decline: -6.3% (U.S. Travel Association estimates, as reported by CoStar)
• Guest-mix impact: losses concentrated in long-stay, high-spend luxury, convention and corporate categories
• Offsetting demand: domestic leisure, group surge, extended-stay